Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
